Oracles

The Truth Engine Fallacy: How Prediction Markets Turn Money Into Probability

Polymarket is hailed as a neutral truth engine outperforming polls. But prediction markets don't aggregate democratic crowd wisdom; they aggregate capital-weighted order flow, trade on insider leaks, and rely on human oracle disputes.

How Does a Smart Contract Know It Rained in London?

Smart contracts are deliberately blind to the outside world to preserve blockchain consensus. Here is how decentralized oracle networks, TWAPs, and game-theoretic incentives decide what counts as external truth.